End of recession may be in sight - The Business Journal of Milwaukee:

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percentage points in May to 85, basesd on a 1997 benchmark of 100. The relativee stability in the UO Index over the past threwe months is consistent with a pattern of economic stabilization, but falls short of a turn that woulf conclusively mark the end of the recession, said Tim Duy, director of the Oregobn Economic Forum and a UO adjuncf assistant professor, in a statement. Oregon labor market data continue tobe mixed. Initial jobless claims edged downward slightly, but remaihn at a level that suggests further declines innonfarm payrolls. initial claims remain well below the peak of December as the pace of economic deterioration hasslowed markedly.
Employment services payroll largely temporary helpagencies — fell in May, but, importantly, the rate of declined is slowing, Duy said. Nonfarm payrolls (not includesd in the index) fell by just 100 jobs durinfg May, an abrupt slowing compared to the recent It is difficult to see a substantialo improvement in thejobs picture, however, with initial claimsa remaining at high levels, Duy said. The unemploymenty rate rose to 12.4 percent. Residential housinbg permits continuedto decline, falling to just 627.
The typical seasonall boost in building activity islargely absent, a testament to persisteny weakness in the housing Builders are finding it difficult to competw in an environment of rising foreclosures and tighter underwritinv conditions for home mortgages, Duy said. The Orego n weight-distance tax reversed gains seen thepreviouds month. In contrast, new orders for nondefense nonaircraftcapital goods, adjusted for rose in May to the highest level since Decembet 2008. Despite the low levels, the relativs stability since the beginning of the year is a hopeful sign that the worst declined in business spending arebehind us, Duy U.S.
consumer confidence rose agaimin May, a further indication that consumed spending has stabilized, he added. The Orego n economy likely remained in recessionin May. That said, the pace of deterioration has slowed. The six-month annualized change in the index improves significantly over the pasttwo months, from -11.8 percentf in March to -8 perceng in May. Similar improvement signaled an impendinyg end to the2001 recession, and woul be consistent with the prediction that economic growth woulds firm in the seconc half of 2009. Still, Duy caution is warranted.
The UO Index has not yet turnedx upward, and the six-month change remainw well below rates normally consistentt witheconomic expansions, and more than half of the indes components remain below six-month ago levels. Finally, therwe is a strong possibility ofa “jobless recovery” as the economyg continues to face structural adjustment issues that limitt the pace of growth.